Uncertainties in the global pork sector for 2023

According to Rabobank’s first-quarter report, Global Pork Quarterly Q1 2023, supply is expected to be tight in the first quarter, with consumption facing uncertainty, and global pork trade likely to be limited. Rising inflation and high stock accumulation in 2022 will pressure import needs.

The main highlights

  • The pig herd in the United States is at an inflection point as the country’s herd returns to growth, while growth slows in Mexico and Canada. Exports are stronger from the United States and Canada as pork is competitive in key markets.
  • Pork production is set to tighten further in Europe in 2023, with few exceptions. Pig carcass prices remain supported by tight supply and high input costs.
  • Pork prices are plunging in China on short-term volatility, oversupply, and weak demand on high COVID-19 infection numbers. Demand is expected to rebound by the end of the first quarter.
  • Easing feed prices should improve margins, but Brazil needs stronger Chinese demand to balance supply growth.
  • Southeast Asia will see strong production growth despite the impact of African swine fever (ASF) and high input costs in 2022. Continuous growth is expected in 2023.
  • Pork consumption manages to remain flat in Japan and storage capacity will not allow import to increase.

You can access the full report here.

The South African Pork Producers’ Organisation (SAPPO) coordinates industry interventions and collaboratively manages risks in the value chain to enable the sustainability and profitability of pork producers in South Africa.