The South African Weather Service’ recent seasonal climate watch promises more rain between February and June

Source: Agbiz e-newsletter, 5 February 20201, photo credit: Duncan Alfreds, News24

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a La Niña state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely weaken but remain in a weak La Niña state towards the autumn season. The influence on South Africa from ENSO however is expected to dissipate as we move towards the autumn and winter months.

The multi-model rainfall forecast for early autumn (Feb-Mar-Apr) indicates mostly above normal rainfall for most of the country with the exception of parts of Limpopo and the Eastern Cape to expect below-normal rainfall. Above-normal rainfall is also widely expected in mid-(Mar-Apr-May) and late-autumn (Apr-May-Jun) with the only exception again for parts of the Eastern Cape in mid-autumn. Mostly above normal minimum temperatures are expected in the north-eastern half of the country for the entire forecasts period with the south-western parts expected to be below-normal.

Maximum temperatures show a similar pattern however the below-normal maximum temperatures are expected further north into the interior of South Africa. The South African Weather Service will continue to monitor and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.
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