The science of weather forecasting: what it takes and why it’s so hard to get right

Source: Victor Ongoma, The Conversation, 1 February 2022, photo credit: 123RF/solerf

Weather forecasting is an important science. Accurate forecasting can help to save lives and minimise property damage. It’s also crucial for agriculture, allowing farmers to track when it’s best to plant or helping them protect their crops.

And it will only become more vital in the coming years. Severe weather events are becoming more frequent and more intense because of climate change and variability.

I am a meteorologist with specialities in forecasting weather and climate change – who wants to improve the quality of weather products and their applications to spur socioeconomic development across Africa. Doing so matters: the World Bank has pointed out that better weather forecasts can bolster the continent’s development.

So, how does forecasting work? What does it take to produce accurate, reliable and timely forecasts? And how can African countries do better on this front?
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