Source: Wandile Sihlobo, Agbiz chief economist, photo credit: Organic Authority
The year 2021promises to be another good year for South Africa’s agricultural sector, at least from a production front.
The data released by the Crop Estimates Committee(CEC) show that South Africa’s 2020/21 summer grain and oilseed production could increase by 5% y/y to 18,5million tonnes.
While this is still the first production estimate for this season, with eight more to follow, this could be the largest on record if it materialises. The crop increases are expected in all summer grains and oilseeds, except sunflower seed, whose harvest is set to fall 10% y/y, primarily on the back of a decline in area plantings.
Farmers switched some typical sunflower seed hectares to maize because of favourable prices. The overall expected increase in summer grain and oilseed production is due to an expansion in area planting and expected higher yields. The weather conditions have generally been favourable since the onset of the season and thus supportive of the production conditions and subsequently the yields.If we zoom into significant crops, the 2020/21maize, soybeans and sunflower seed harvests are forecast at 15,8million tonnes(up 4% y/y), 1,6million tonnes (up 30% y/y, a record harvest), and 712 940tonnes(down 10% y/y, as previously mentioned).
The maize production estimate is slightly below our estimate of 16,7 million tonnes, while the soybean production estimate is well above our estimate of 1,5million tonnes. This variation can largely be explained by adjustments in area plantings, which for maize was revised down somewhat, and for soybeans revised up from the preliminary estimates released by the CEC on 28 January 2021. There is also a difference in the yield assumptions we had applied.
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The South African Pork Producers’ Organisation (SAPPO) coordinates industry interventions and collaboratively manages risks in the value chain to enable the sustainability and profitability of pork producers in South Africa.
