Source: South African Weather Service, 31 July 2021, photo credit: itv/ Theresa Ridgway
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently in a neutral state and the forecast indicates that it will most likely remain in a neutral state for spring, with a likely change to a weak La Niña during early-summer.
As we move towards the spring and summer season, ENSO starts playing an important role in our summer rainfall. As such, the increased likelihood of a weak La Niña during early summer is expected to be favourable for above-normal rainfall in that period.
The multi-model rainfall forecast indicates mostly above-normal rainfall for the north-eastern half of the country throughout the spring to early summer seasons (ASO, SON and OND), whereas the south-western half, which falls outside the parts which receive summer rainfall, is mostly expected to receive below-normal rainfall. Above-normal minimum and maximum temperatures are expected acrossthe country.
The South African Weather Service(SAWS)will continue to monitor and provide updates on any future assessments that may provide more clarity on the current expectations for the coming seasons.