Source: Pig333.com, 21 June 2021, photo credit: Kündig Gruppe
A tight market outlook for oilseeds is expected for 2020/21 and coarse grains stocks are forecast to fall below opening levels for the fourth consecutive season.
At a record 1 516 million tonnes, world coarse grains production in 2021 is forecast to increase by 36 million tonnes (2.5 percent) from 2020, almost exclusively due to higher maize production. A large expansion in maize production in the United States accounts for the bulk of the expected global increase, in addition to greater outputs anticipated in China, the European Union and Ukraine. World production of sorghum is also foreseen to rise in 2021/22, while barley production is set to decline, largely on expected reduced output in Australia.
World utilisation of coarse grains is forecast to increase in 2021/22 by 1.4 percent, reaching an all-time high of 1 526 million tonnes. The main driver of this growth is a rise in industrial use, stemming from expected greater utilization of maize for the production of ethanol. Increased feed use of both maize and sorghum, especially in China, is also seen lifting coarse grains utilization in 2021/22.
With the 2021/22 utilization forecast exceeding the global production forecast, coarse grains stocks are expected to contract by the close of seasons in 2022, falling by 1.7 percent below their opening levels. This decline is largely attributed to a likely further drawdown of maize inventories in China. In combination with the forecast rise in utilization, the expected fall in global coarse grain inventories would lower the world stocks-to-use ratio to its lowest level since 2012/13.