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China: Pork supply-demand pressure to decrease in fourth quarter

Screen Shot 2020-09-21 at 2.36.26 PM

Source: pig333.com, photo credit: The Economic Times

As pig production continues to recover, the pork supply is gradually improving, which is expected to keep Q4 pork prices lower than last year.

According to monitoring by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in August China’s live pig inventory increased 4.7% month-on-month with a year-on-year increase of 31.3%. This marks seven consecutive months of increases. The breeding sow inventory increased by 3.5% month-on-month, a year-on-year increase of 37.0%.

The Ministry attributes this growth to stabilized prevention and control of African swine fever. Biosecurity practices have improved, more farmers are restocking their operations, and new farms are opening.

In fact, 2,030 new large-scale pig farms were put into production in August, and the cumulative number of newly-built large-scale pig farms has reached 11,123 since the beginning of this year. The number of pig farms with 500+ pigs for slaughter increased 6.2%, from 161,000 farms at the beginning of the year to 171,000.

In August, 26 million piglets were born, an increase of 6.7% from the previous month and up 59.5% from the lowest point in January this year. Although the number of piglets born continues to increase, they are still in short supply due to strong demand, and the piglet price has risen significantly. In the first week of September, the piglet price on the national market was 109.07 yuan/kg, a 44.4% increase from the beginning of this year.
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